IPCC Projections & Sea Level Rise

Want to know more about the IPCC projections & planning for sea level rise

This event will present key statements on the sea-level rise from the Working Group I and II IPCC reports, including adaptation challenges. The authors of the report will present the latest projections, where to find the data and how to interpret it, and how practitioners can understand low-likelihood/high-impact sea-level rise projections and their use in adaptation. The event will conclude with the presentation of the joint policy brief from European Projects PROTECT, CoCliCo and SCORE, “When will a 2-metre rise in sea level occur, and how might we adapt?”

This event will be particularly useful for people working in coastal adaptation, integrated coastal zone management or at the interface between science and society, from journalists to science communicators.

PROTECT webinar: Monday 30 January – 3-5 pm CET

Speakers: Bob Kopp from Rutgers UniversityMarjolijn Haasnoot from Deltares and Utrecht UniversityKarina VON SCHUCKMANN from Mercator Ocean InternationalGonéri Le Cozannet from BRGMRoshanka Ranasinghe from Deltares, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education and University of Twente, Gaël Durand, Robert Nicholls from University of East AngliaA K M Saiful Islam from Drexel University,and Elham Ali from Suez University(TBC).

This event is free by registering in advance:

If you know someone working on sea level rise and coastal risk, tag them in the comments! It’s likely this event will be of interest to them. 

Information on the event:–Aq6 

The policy brief: 

CoCliCo is One Year Old!

CoCliCo marks the anniversary with a consortium wide workshop.

We hosted our first in-person workshop in Orleans, where we brought together representatives from each of the partner organisations. We are already one year into the project and have completed a lot, from defining key user stories to creating the fast-track platform. So now was a crucial time to come together and align our efforts to make the most impact in the upcoming two years. 

Here is a summary of our three days and where the CoCliCo project is currently at.

Day 1. Updates & Fast-Track Version.

We started with a consortium-wide alignment by Gonéri Le Cozannet from BRGM on the purpose and aims of the project. The main objective of CoCliCo services is to improve decision-making on coastal risk management and adaptation across Europe and the UK.

A big bulk of day 1 focused on updates and exploration of work packages 1-6. We have 8 work packages that form the foundations of the CoCliCo project.

Work package division outlining what the WP is about and which partner organisations are involved.

WP1 ensures the project meets the needs of its specific target users. These users are from the following sectors: policy, cities and towns, and private coastal infrastructure. A fruitful discussion built upon the research conducted by Sayers & Partners. Each of the partners will take these learnings and integrate them into the specific context of their work package. 

WP2 is responsible for developing the platform. The first step was to create the fast-track version. This was presented live to the whole consortium for the first time by Etiënne Kras and Floris Calkoen from Deltares. Thanks to WP2 leaders Deltares for developing it, and to Aristotle University of Thessaloniki for supporting its development. 

The fast-track version includes:

Our partners in WP3-6 are working on the science and data that will populate the platform. These include projections across sea level, coastal hazards (erosion and flood), exposure and vulnerability (to people, infrastructure etc), risk and adaptation, and how to model these. We explored these WPs more deeply on day two. 

Day 2. Data, Data, & More Data.

We dived into the specifics of what datasets will be used and how we can ensure that the data used is FAIR (that it is Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable). The following diagram show the different elements of the CoCliCo platform development and how they interact to be FAIR.

Arjen Luijendijk from Deltares led the session on Integrated scenarios. We discussed how to prioritise our users, scenarios and datasets so as to provide the most comprehensive but viable outputs that are needed to address the pressing issues in coastal risk assessment and adaptation.

Remi Thiéblemont from BRGM led The Data Working Group review of our available data to ensure fluent interaction between datasets and the platform. 

CoCliCo is multi-dimensional, covering typologies from physical, biological, social, and governance to platform design. Professor Robert Nicholls from University East Anglia led The Coastal Typology Working Group led the discussion to work on consistency and synergies between the typologies, work packages and final CoCliCo service. He also shared insights from the WCRP Sea Level 2022 Conference that he co-organised.

Similarly, Bart Van den Hurk from Deltares presented Knowledge Hub Sea Level Rise, a joint endeavour by JPI Climate and JPI Oceans held in Venice. It brought together key knowledge on the state and future of our coasts. We’ll feed the conclusions from both conferences into the development of CoCliCo. 

Five early career scientists presented their research and how it will contribute to CoCliCo datasets and modeling. 

  • Vanessa Völz, GCF. Coastal Adaptation Decision Analysis: Sea Level Rise Learning Scenarios​.
  • Maialen Irazoqui, Mercator Ocean. Sea level projection variability. 
  • Hedda Bonatz, Kiel University. Analysis of coastal population distribution in Europe​.
  • Joël De Plaen, VU Amsterdam. Exposure and vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
  • Floris Calkoen, Deltares. Data-driven coastal change modeling at the continental scale​.

Day 3. All The Rest.

To round up our workshop, day three covered the following five topics. 

  • Assessing and representing uncertainties
  • Integrated scenarios 
  • Policy brief
  • WP7 Communication, dissemination and exploitation
  • Platforms workbench demo 

1) Assessing and representing uncertainties 

As is with all scientific modelling, no platform claims to know and account for everything – if they do, be wary! How will we represent this uncertainty on our platform? What assumptions are we making, and what variables do we not know or can’t account for?

In each of our work packages, the uncertainty is different. The analysis assumptions will vary depending on the data and the factors involved. We need to consider this at an early stage, in terms of the hazards and risks, the users and the platform to recognise and address uncertainty where we can and communicate it clearly.

A good approach to assess this further is through case studies. By choosing case studies we have advanced knowledge of, we can assess the assumptions and uncertainties of the platform through a clear reference. 

2) Integrated Scenarios 

We walked through each data set to tease out the range of scenarios and their key indicators, the key drivers affecting that indicator, the limitations for generating data and details of the output. From here, we will integrate these to create scenarios in the platform.

3) Policy brief

Gonéri Le Cozannet introduced the policy brief that we are collaborating on with Protect and SCORE, two other EU-funded projects on coastal resilience. It will address the questions “When will a 2m rise in sea levels occur?” and “How might we adapt?”

Stay tuned for the key messages being presented at COP27.

4) WP7 Communication, dissemination and exploitation

We talked through the communication, dissemination and exploitation activities thus far and plans for the future, like collaborating with all the partners to build user stories. We also discussed the long-term vision; how CoCliCo will continue to add value after the project ends. 

5) Platforms workbench demo

We closed the day with a demo of the platform’s workbench: Mapping coastal building footprints using STAC API and how we will enable external parties to use the data and code to expand the work of CoCliCo Services and make it Open Source.

With that, we parted ways! All in all, we had three very productive days and are stepping into year two aligned and motivated.

Video Release

The consequences of sea-level rise and coastal flooding cannot be underestimated. With 7% of Europe’s population living in highly exposed coastal areas, we need to plan now to protect lives and economies in the future. 

Authoritative data, based on the best available science, is needed now to support the decisions being made. All coastal European countries need access to accurate data and models and the ability to translate science into understandable, actionable knowledge to inform decision making:

  • Identifying priorities
  • Observing past trends
  • Exploring alternatives
  • Projecting the future

CoCliCo is a comprehensive system of coastal climate core services that is being developed to answer this pressing need. 

It is a Pan-European web-based platform that will allow access to guidance to help inform policies and investments to ensure better adaptation to the implications of coastal climate change. It forms part of a cluster of European funded projects addressing coastal adaptation, creating an “ecosystem” of climate services. 

Watch and share our new video now!

IPCC WG2 Climate Report

The IPCC WG2 Climate Report published today is the most precise and up to date global assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change available at this time.  270 authors from 67 countries contributed to this assessment. 

Sea level rise represents a major threat for coastal communities, infrastructure and ecosystems during the 21st century and beyond. Thus, adaptation to sea level rise is one of the challenges addressed in this report. 

The sea-level projections delivered in July 2021 by WG1 are a major step forward. These projections are extended from 2100 to 2150 and they provide a quantitative estimate of a low-likelihood / high impact sea-level rise involving large ice mass losses in Antarctica and Greenland. Our sister project Protect Slr contributed to this assessment through new projections of ice mass losses.

Authoritative climate services will be needed to support adaptation: CoCliCo Services aims at developing a core service for coastal adaptation to sea level rise in Europe, in close cooperation with Copernicus Marine Service.

Adaptation alone will not be sufficient: urgent mitigation of climate change is needed to reduce sea level rise rates and give more time for adaptation planning and implementation, as well as to coastal ecosystems to migrate landward.