A collaborative exploration of future coastal adaptation in the Fens, England.

The Fens, the UK’s largest coastal lowland, face a pressing climate challenge. Strategically crucial for national food production and home to a growing population and economy, this region is particularly vulnerable to climate risks like sea-level rise (SLR), coastal and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress. Over the centuries, the Fens have transformed into an engineered landscape, reliant on drainage channels, flood defences, and tidal barriers to manage water. But with large areas of the region below sea level and sea levels projected to rise by up to one metre by the end of the century, the risks are mounting.

In collaboration with the Environment Agency-funded Fens Climate Change Risk Assessment Project, which includes the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Sayers & Partners, the UK Centre for Hydrology and Ecology, and the University of East Anglia, CoCliCo has supported the crucial in-depth climate risk assessment for the Fens and exploration of alternative high-level adaptation future storylines. The case study highlights the interconnectedness of climate risks, illustrating how rising seas, drought, and biodiversity loss intertwine to challenge the future of this vital region. But it’s not all doom and gloom as this case study also offers hope, showcasing innovative adaptation solutions that can help the Fens thrive despite the mounting challenges.

Tackling complex climate risks through a systems lens

A key takeaway from the Fens case study is the need to view the region’s climate risks through a systems lens. The Fens’ challenges are deeply interconnected. Sea-level rise, flooding, water scarcity, and agricultural impacts all affect one another, meaning that the solutions must be similarly integrated. By considering the various climate and socio-economic factors, CoCliCo has provided an adaptable framework for adaptation that can guide future actions.

Through high-resolution modelling and data from climate projections (including UK Met Office UKCP18 data), the study not only analyses the risks of flooding and drought but also considers their cascading effects on agriculture, biodiversity, and community health. The study’s integration of the pan-European CoCliCo framework offers a scalable tool for stakeholders to build adaptive strategies that are both local and collaborative.

The Role of CoCliCo in shaping the future of adaptation

The Fens case study has significantly contributed to developing the CoCliCo platform. By combining detailed local risk assessments with the CoCliCo toolset, the study underscores the potential for tailored, downscaled solutions. It shows how CoCliCo’s platform can help users explore multiple adaptation futures, from business-as-usual to managed retreat locally, empowering stakeholders to make informed decisions that safeguard the Fens’ future.

This work also highlights the importance of ongoing collaboration between stakeholders, including local governments, flood risk management authorities, agricultural communities, and environmental agencies. By working together, these diverse groups can ensure that the Fens remain resilient, adaptive, and sustainable in the face of climate change.

Lessons for global climate adaptation

The lessons from the Fens extend beyond this region and offer valuable insights for coastal lowlands worldwide. As the impacts of climate change become more pronounced, the need for integrated adaptation strategies becomes ever clearer. This case study provides a model for other regions facing similar challenges, offering a comprehensive framework for assessing risks, identifying opportunities, and making decisions that balance environmental, social, and economic needs.

Key recommendations for stakeholders

1. Collaborate across sectors: The interconnected risks in the Fens require an integrated approach. Flood risk management, agricultural communities, and local governments must work together to create solutions that address the full scope of challenges.
2. Plan for long-term risks: While immediate climate threats must be addressed, long-term sea-level rise projections (up to 3m beyond 2100) should shape current and future planning.
3. Invest in resilience now: The window for action is closing. Adaptation efforts made today will pay off in the long term, preventing higher costs and greater damage down the road.
4. Use local data for global solutions: High-resolution, localised climate data is crucial. The CoCliCo framework enables downscaled analyses that offer actionable insights, ensuring that local needs are met within a broader climate adaptation strategy.

Stakeholder Engagement and Support

Throughout the project, engagement with key stakeholders has been integral. The team collaborated with organisations like Anglian Water, Lincolnshire County Council, and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Combined Authority, ensuring the results met the user community’s needs. These partners are now using the findings to shape future flood resilience strategies, ensuring the Fens’ continued role in national food production.

Feedback from stakeholders, such as Dr. Robin Price from Anglian Water and Amy Shaw from the Environment Agency, emphasises the importance of immediate action. Their commitment to securing a thriving future for the Fens underscores the urgency of these adaptation efforts.

Looking ahead:

The future of the Fens depends on the collective action of its stakeholders. With climate change already affecting the region, a forward-thinking approach is essential to protect its people, environment, and economy. The CoCliCo project has provided the tools, data, and framework needed to navigate this complex challenge, offering a path forward for the Fens and beyond.

For more information, visit the CoCliCo project’s resources, and stay connected via the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the Future Fens Integrated Adaptation initiatives.

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Authorship

Thank you, Katie Jenkins, Paul Sayers, Sam Carr, and Robert Nicholls, for developing this case study in collaboration with the Environment Agency Fens team and the many active stakeholders. You can read the full risk assessment report here.

Funding support

The Environment Agency Fens Programme has supported the main Fens studies. Support funding has been provided through CoCliCo to help provide insights into coastal climate change and alternative adaptation stories. 

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• Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
• Future Fens Integrated Adaptation