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Understanding Sea Level Rise Projections and the Role of Scenarios 

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The 21st century has witnessed an unprecedented rise in global mean sea level (GMSL), a trend that is projected to continue till at least 2100. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that GMSL rose faster in the 20th century than in any prior century over the last three millennia. The rise has been attributed to ocean thermal expansion and mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, with minor contributions from changes in land-water storage. 

However, these projections come with a degree of uncertainty. The future sea level rise could be influenced by earlier-than-projected disintegration of marine ice shelves, abrupt onset of marine ice sheet instability, and faster-than-projected changes in the surface mass balance and discharge from Greenland. These processes are characterized by deep uncertainty due to limited process understanding, limited availability of evaluation data, uncertainties in their external forcing, and high sensitivity to uncertain boundary conditions and parameters. 

Why Do We Use Scenarios in Climate Change Science for Projections?

Scenarios are used in climate change science to understand the potential future impacts of climate change. They provide a structured way to explore and communicate complex, uncertain future conditions. In the context of climate change, scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but rather plausible descriptions of how the future might evolve. 

What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)? 

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are scenarios used by climate researchers to project the potential future states of societies and economies. They consider various factors like population growth, economic development, education, urbanization, and the rate of technological change. The IPCC has defined five SSPs, each representing a different trajectory for societal development in the absence of climate policy intervention and a different level of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. 

How are SSPs related to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Management? 

SSPs play a crucial role in understanding the potential impacts of sea level rise and formulating effective coastal management strategies. They help us understand how different societal pathways might influence greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn drive global warming and sea level rise. By understanding these potential future states, we can better plan for and manage the risks associated with sea level rise. 

Sea Level Rise on each SSP in Europe 

Each SSP represents a different potential future, and thus, a different potential impact from sea level rise. For instance, under SSP1-1.9, where warming is held to approximately 1.5°C above 1850-1900 levels by 2100, the projected sea level rise is lower compared to SSP5-8.5, a high reference scenario with no additional climate policy, where emission levels are highest. 

In Europe, as in the rest of the world, the impact of sea level rise will vary significantly depending on the SSP. Coastal areas will face increased risks from flooding, erosion, and other coastal hazards. The ability of these areas to adapt to these changes will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of sea level rise, the physical characteristics of the coast, and the societal and economic pathway followed. 

In conclusion, understanding and considering SSPs is crucial in our fight against climate change. They provide us with a framework to understand potential future societal and economic conditions, helping us prepare for and mitigate the impacts of sea level rise. As we continue to refine these pathways and our understanding of their implications, they will remain an essential tool in our climate change arsenal. 

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Test Interactive SSP

First Ever European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA)

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“Europe is not prepared for rapidly growing climate risks”, EEA reports, after publishing the first-ever European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA). The assessment builds upon the IPCC and the latest insights from many European projects, such as CoCliCo. The report recognises many gaps in our knowledge but highlights just how much we know. 

European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA)

Europe faces escalating climate risks, including extreme heat, droughts, wildfires, and flooding, with projections indicating worsening conditions even under optimistic global warming scenarios. The European Environment Agency (EEA) has introduced the first-ever European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) to guide policymakers in identifying priorities for climate change adaptation.

The assessment highlights a lag in policy and adaptation actions, urging urgent measures as incremental changes may not suffice. Southern Europe is identified as a hotspot for multiple risks, such as wildfires and agricultural impacts. The EUCRA identifies 36 major climate risks across ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure, and the economy. Urgent action is particularly crucial to conserve ecosystems, protect against heat, floods, and wildfires, and ensure the viability of solidarity mechanisms.

Our colleagues Elco Koks (VU Amsterdam) and Paul Sayers (Sayers and Partners) co-authored, Chapter 15: Major Disruptions of Critical Infrastructure, with contributions from Jaroslav Mysiak (CMCC) and Anna Pirani (CMCC). 

Key Messages from Chapter 15:

Climate Threats to Critical Infrastructure:

Europe’s vital infrastructure faces increased exposure to extreme weather events, posing risks to transport, energy, and communication services.

Interconnected Network Vulnerability:

Infrastructure assets are interconnected, and failures at one point can cascade across the system, necessitating a holistic approach to climate resilience.

Adaptation Deficit and Urgency:

Ageing infrastructure in Europe has a significant adaptation deficit. Proactive measures are crucial, emphasising adapting before system failures occur.

Proactive Adaptation and Transformation:

Long-term infrastructure resilience requires proactive adaptation, with some sectors and locations needing transformational changes rather than incremental adjustments.

Data-Driven Decision-Making:

Better data and analytics are essential for understanding asset conditions, assessing risks, and informing adaptation strategies, including regulatory stress tests.

Policy Implementation and Responsibility:

Policies for infrastructure resilience must account for current and future climatic hazards, with clear responsibilities assigned to owners and managers for effective implementation.

In summary, ecosystems, food production, human health, infrastructure, and the economy face severe risks, requiring immediate attention. There is a strong need for collaboration among EU Member States and involvement of regional and local levels for coordinated action. The EU’s role in addressing knowledge gaps, legislation, governance structures, monitoring, funding, and technical support is crucial for enhancing climate resilience. The EUCRA report serves as a strategic tool, synthesising existing knowledge to effectively support policymakers in navigating climate challenges.

Access the report here

Header image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay.

Publication: The evolving landscape of sea-level rise science from 1990 to 2021

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As we navigate the challenges of climate change and environmental degradation, the health and sustainability of our floodplains are becoming increasingly crucial. A recent study, involving the efforts of the CoCliCo team and published in Nature Communications, sheds light on the alarming rate at which Europe’s floodplains are diminishing, presenting significant risks to both natural ecosystems and human societies.

The Critical State of Europe’s Floodplains

This groundbreaking research reveals a concerning trend in Europe’s floodplains. These vital ecosystems, which play a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity, regulating water cycles, and protecting against floods, are under threat due to intensified human activities and environmental neglect. The study quantitatively assesses the current state of Europe’s floodplains, highlighting the need for immediate and effective coastal risk management strategies.

Implications for Coastal Risk Management in Europe

The findings of this study are particularly relevant for coastal risk management in Europe. With the increasing frequency and severity of flooding events, understanding the dynamics of floodplains is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This research not only highlights the challenges but also provides valuable insights for managing coastal risks, ensuring the safety of communities, and preserving natural ecosystems.

This will be crucial when providing context and information to develop and navigate the CoCliCo platform we’re building right now.

Strategies for Preserving Europe’s Floodplains

Drawing insights from the study, it is evident that a multifaceted approach is required to protect and restore Europe’s floodplains. This includes:

  • Enhancing Public Awareness and Engagement: Educating communities and stakeholders about the importance of floodplains, and involving them in conservation efforts.
  • Strengthening Environmental Policies and Regulations: Implementing robust policies that limit harmful activities and promote sustainable practices in floodplain areas.
  • Adopting Integrated Management Approaches: Coordinating efforts across different sectors and regions to ensure a holistic approach to floodplain management.

The way forward

The study serves as a crucial reminder of the interconnectedness of human actions and natural systems. It calls for an integrated approach, combining scientific research, policy-making, and community involvement to effectively manage and preserve Europe’s floodplains. This will not only mitigate the immediate risks associated with flooding but also contribute to the long-term health of our ecosystems and societies.

Conclusion

As highlighted in this important research supported by the CoCliCo project, addressing the challenges facing Europe’s floodplains is imperative for sustainable coastal management. By understanding the threats, acknowledging the value of these ecosystems, and taking concerted action, we can ensure a resilient and thriving future for Europe’s natural landscapes and the communities that depend on them.

For more detailed insights into this study and its implications for floodplain management, visit the research page on Nature Communications.

Webinar Recording: IPCC Projections & Sea Level Rise

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During this webinar, authors from working groups I and II from the 2022 IPCC report presented the data, where to find it and how to interpret it, and how practitioners can understand low-likelihood/high-impact sea-level rise projections and their use in adaptation. The event concluded with a presentation of the joint policy brief from European Projects PROTECT, CoCliCo and SCORE, “When will a 2-metre rise in sea level occur, and how might we adapt?”

Speakers: Bob Kopp from Rutgers University, Marjolijn Haasnoot from Deltares and Utrecht University, Karina VON SCHUCKMANN from Mercator Ocean International, Gonéri Le Cozannet from BRGM, Roshanka Ranasinghe from Deltares, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education and University of Twente, Gaël Durand, Robert Nicholls from University of East Anglia, A K M Saiful Islam from Drexel University,and Elham Ali from Suez University(TBC).

The policy brief: https://protect-slr.eu/policy-briefs/ 

Watch the webinar now: https://youtu.be/yoHCInbj2ok

IPCC Projections & Sea Level Rise

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Want to know more about the IPCC projections & planning for sea level rise? 

This event will present key statements on the sea-level rise from the Working Group I and II IPCC reports, including adaptation challenges. The authors of the report will present the latest projections, where to find the data and how to interpret it, and how practitioners can understand low-likelihood/high-impact sea-level rise projections and their use in adaptation. The event will conclude with the presentation of the joint policy brief from European Projects PROTECT, CoCliCo and SCORE, “When will a 2-metre rise in sea level occur, and how might we adapt?”

This event will be particularly useful for people working in coastal adaptation, integrated coastal zone management or at the interface between science and society, from journalists to science communicators.

PROTECT webinar: Monday 30 January – 3-5 pm CET

Speakers: Bob Kopp from Rutgers University, Marjolijn Haasnoot from Deltares and Utrecht University, Karina VON SCHUCKMANN from Mercator Ocean International, Gonéri Le Cozannet from BRGM, Roshanka Ranasinghe from Deltares, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education and University of Twente, Gaël Durand, Robert Nicholls from University of East Anglia, A K M Saiful Islam from Drexel University,and Elham Ali from Suez University(TBC).

This event is free by registering in advance:

Register for event

If you know someone working on sea level rise and coastal risk, tag them in the comments! It’s likely this event will be of interest to them. 

Information on the event: https://lnkd.in/ect–Aq6 

The policy brief: https://protect-slr.eu/policy-briefs/ 

IPCC WG2 Climate Report

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The IPCC WG2 Climate Report published today is the most precise and up to date global assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change available at this time.  270 authors from 67 countries contributed to this assessment. 

Sea level rise represents a major threat for coastal communities, infrastructure and ecosystems during the 21st century and beyond. Thus, adaptation to sea level rise is one of the challenges addressed in this report. 

The sea-level projections delivered in July 2021 by WG1 are a major step forward. These projections are extended from 2100 to 2150 and they provide a quantitative estimate of a low-likelihood / high impact sea-level rise involving large ice mass losses in Antarctica and Greenland. Our sister project Protect Slr contributed to this assessment through new projections of ice mass losses.

Authoritative climate services will be needed to support adaptation: CoCliCo Services aims at developing a core service for coastal adaptation to sea level rise in Europe, in close cooperation with Copernicus Marine Service.

Adaptation alone will not be sufficient: urgent mitigation of climate change is needed to reduce sea level rise rates and give more time for adaptation planning and implementation, as well as to coastal ecosystems to migrate landward.