Mapping Europe’s future coastal populations: Spotlight on Hedda Bonatz.

Understanding how coastal populations will evolve under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios is essential for preparing for future risks. Hedda Bonatz, a PhD researcher at the University of Kiel, is at the forefront of this challenge as part of the CoCliCo project. Her work focuses on producing high-resolution population projections to assess exposure to coastal hazards across Europe.

A passion for coastal research.

Hedda’s journey into climate research began when she moved to Kiel in 2016 to study geography. Over time, she developed a strong interest in physical geography, particularly ocean and coastal systems. During her Master’s in Environmental Geography, she worked as a student assistant in the Coastal Risks and Sea Level Rise working group, contributing to demographic studies and population risk assessments. This experience led her to pursue a PhD position within the CoCliCo project, focusing on exposure and vulnerability assessments.

Predicting coastal population dynamics.

Hedda’s research aims to develop spatial population projections for the EU, considering different socioeconomic scenarios. By integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), she and her team explore various possible futures, providing insight into how population dynamics may shape exposure to coastal hazards.

Her approach extends a gravity model of migration, distributing national population projections onto a grid-based system. This method allows for detailed, high-resolution projections, helping researchers and policymakers identify key areas of risk and adaptation needs.

The social side of coastal risk(s).

Initially focused on physical coastal processes, Hedda’s research evolved to encompass the social dimensions of coastal risk. She recognized that human factors—such as migration, urbanization, and economic development—play a crucial role in determining risk exposure. Her Master’s thesis assessed how population exposure in coastal areas varies based on different data sources and urban definitions, further solidifying her interest in population dynamics and scenario planning.

Collaborative research & future challenges.

According to Hedda, one of the most exciting aspects of working on CoCliCo is being part of a large-scale European project that brings together experts from multiple disciplines. Through this collaboration, she contributes to making coastal and climate data more accessible while learning from experienced researchers in the field.

“It’s great to work with so many experts and travel across Europe to exchange ideas on coastal research and project management,” she shares.

Hedda’s research is vital in helping societies better prepare for sudden population shifts and climate-related risks. Events like the COVID-19 pandemic have shown how quickly demographics can change, making it crucial to develop flexible, data-driven models for future planning.

By providing detailed population projections, her work helps identify high-risk areas and supports policymakers in building resilience against climate change.

Beyond research:

When she’s not deep in coastal data, Hedda enjoys playing football and sailing, spending time with friends, and watching movies. Her passion for the ocean extends beyond her research, making her work all the more meaningful.

Connect with Hedda on LinkedIn and explore her working group’s homepage here.

You can also check out her latest research publication “Comparing built-up area datasets to assess urban exposure to coastal hazards in Europe” on Nature Scientific Data, here.