Workpackage 6
Risk analysis and adaptation pathways
WP6 develops a suite of adaptation models and applies these to simulate baseline adaptation and a risk-based adaptation scenario considering all three generic responses to sea-level rise: protection, accommodation and retreat.
Objectives
1 To develop a GIS layer that captures current coastal risk management and adaptation measures in Europe and a database of adaptation policies
2 To segment Europe’s coast into coastal Flood Risk Management Units that are homogenous in terms of adaptation characteristics
3 To develop baseline adaptation models for protection, accommodation and retreat that extend current coastal management and adaptation practise into the future, as well as their impacts on population displacements
4 To develop a risk-based integrative adaptation model that implements optimal combinations of protection, accommodation and retreat measures over time, and assesses their impacts on population displacements
5 To produce a set of risk data layers that combine hazard, vulnerability and exposure layers produced by WPs 4 and 5 with the adaptation models developed here, using risk indicators identified with end-users in WP1
Deliverables
D6.1 GIS layer on current adaptation measures and database on adaptation policy
D6.2 Report and final GIS layer of flood risk management units
D6.3 Baseline coastal adaptation models
D6.4 Cost-benefit coastal adaptation model
D6.5 Assessment of risk and uncertainties
Milestones
MS6.1 Specification of the data layers to be delivered by WP6
MS6.2 Output of baseline protection and baseline retreat models passed to WP4 and WP5 for deriving flood hazard and exposure data layers,
MS6.3 Preliminary version of risk datasets
MS6.4 Output of CBA integrated model passed to WP4 and WP5 for deriving flood hazard and exposure data layers
MS6.5 Final version of risk datasets
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